Q2 2024 (Apr-Jun) India RE update
Summary
- Cumulative: India’s renewable energy capacity installation reached 195 GW as of June 30, 2024 including solar, wind, small hydro, and biomass sources. Solar continues to be the major contributor with a 44% share in the total renewable mix, followed by wind and large hydro with a 24% share each. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind, wind-solar hybrid and storage projects is around 110.6 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 71.4 GW of projects are under the bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
- Yearly: From January to June 2024 (H12024), India added about 9.6 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity, which is about 2.3 times higher compared to the installations during January-June 2023. India added about 1.8 GW of new rooftop solar capacity in the first half of 2024, which is about 19.6% lesser than the H12023 installations. In the wind sector, about 1.9 GW of new capacity was added in H12024, slightly up from the 1.87 GW added in H12023.
- Quarterly: In Q2 2024 (April-June 2024), about 2.1 GW of utility-scale solar capacity was added in India, representing a 72% decrease compared to the previous quarter’s installations. In the wind segment, about 0.77 GW was added, representing a 33% decline from the installations in Q1 2024. Moreover, around 1.05 GW were installed in the rooftop segment during this quarter.
Projections
- Yearly: According to JMK Research, in CY2024, about 21.5 GW of new solar capacity is expected to be added in India (16.5 GW from utility-scale, 4 GW from rooftop solar and another 1 GW from off grid component). Whereas in the wind segment, it is projected that around 4.5 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in CY2024.
- Quarterly: As per JMK Research estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 6.9 GW of solar and 2.6 GW of wind capacity is likely to be added.
Quarterly market shares
- Inverters: In Q2 2024, Sungrow was the leading inverter supplier with a 27.8% share, followed by Sineng (12.8%) and FIMER (11%).
- Modules: In Q2 2024, Waaree was the leading module supplier, contributing around 12.3% share of total shipments in India.
- Project Developers: In terms of cumulative installation as of June 30, 2024, across utility-scale solar, wind and hybrid segments, Adani is the leading player, with about 11.2 GW of operational capacity and another 21.95 GW of projects in pipeline.
Tenders
- In Q2 2024, 39 new RE tenders with a cumulative capacity of 23.4 GW were issued. This represents a 42.5% decrease in RE capacity from the previous quarter (Q1 2024), which had tenders for 40.7 GW of renewable energy across various sources such as solar, wind, small hydro etc.
- About 6,700 MW renewable energy capacity from various sources such as solar, wind, hybrid, storage etc., was allotted to various RE developers in the second quarter of 2024, marking a decrease of about 67% from the preceding quarter i.e., Q1 2024 (20,013 MW). In the storage segment, Gensol Engineering Ltd secured the entire 250 MW/500 MWh capacity of Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd’s standalone battery energy storage project, with an additional 250 MW (500 MWh) allocated under the Greenshoe option.
- In Q2 2024, the lowest-winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.67/kWh under GUVNL 500 MW solar (Phase XXIV) tender which is 6% higher than the lowest solar tariff discovered in the previous quarter.
- The lowest-winning tariff in the wind-solar hybrid segment was INR 3.33/kW under the GUVNL 500 MW Wind-Solar Hybrid (Phase II) tender which is 5.7% higher than the lowest wind-solar hybrid tariff discovered under SECI’s 2000 MW ISTS Connected Wind-Solar Hybrid tender in the previous quarter (Q1 2024).
Investments
The investment flow in the RE sector in Q2 2024 was $2088 million, which is 61.8% more than the investments in Q1 2024.
Module price trends
The domestic module prices of Mono PERC have seen a 4% decline on QoQ basis. Furthermore, there is a YoY reduction of around 31.7%.
Quarterly Import-Export Statistics
In the second quarter of 2024, solar module imports and exports have decreased by 73% and 31.3% respectively in Q2 2024 as compared to previous quarter’s data. The significant drop in the module imports is due to the reimposition of ALMM order effective from April 1, 2024.