Q4 2024 (Oct-Dec) India RE update
Summary
- Cumulative: As of December 31, 2024, green energy capacity installation reached 209.4 GW in India. Solar continues to be the major contributor to the renewables sector, with a 47% share in the total renewable mix, followed by wind (23%) and large hydro with a 22% share. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind, wind-solar hybrid and storage projects is around 132.5 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 63.5 GW of projects are under the bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
- Yearly: From January to December 2024, India added about 18.5 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity, marking an increase of ~2.8 times compared to the annual solar installations of 6.5 GW in 2023. During 2024, about 4.59 GW of new rooftop solar capacity was added in the country, a 53% increase compared to 2023. In the wind sector, about 3.4 GW of new capacity was added in 2024, up by 21% as compared to 2023.
- Quarterly: In Q4 2024 (October-December 2024), about 5.3 GW of utility-scale solar capacity was added in India, representing a 47.2% increase compared to the previous quarter’s installations. In the wind segment, about 0.8 GW was added, representing a 12.7% increase from the installations in Q3 2024.
Projections
- Yearly: According to JMK Research, in CY2025, about ~32.3 GW of new solar capacity is expected to be added in India (22.8 GW from utility-scale, 7.5 GW from rooftop solar and another 2 GW from off-grid component). Whereas in the wind segment, it is projected that around 4.5 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in CY2025.
- Quarterly: In the next two quarters, about 11.5 GW of utility scale solar and 2.7 GW of wind capacities are expected to be installed in the country.
Quarterly market shares
- Inverters: In Q4 2024, Sungrow was the leading inverter supplier with a 25.8% share, followed by Sineng (15.3%) and FIMER (13.7%).
- Modules: In Q4 2024, Waaree was the leading module supplier, contributing around 17% share of total shipments in India.
- Project Developers: As of December 31, 2024, the top five players in terms of cumulative installations and pipeline capacity across utility-scale solar, wind, and hybrid segments are Adani (33.6 GW), ReNew (20.3 GW), NTPC (15.3 GW), Greenko (14.1 GW) and Avaada (14 GW). The commissioned capacity of the top five players increased by 6.1% compared to the previous quarter (Q3 2024).
Tenders
- Regarding tender activity, in Q4 2024, 73 GW of utility scale green energy tenders were issued in India, reflecting an increase of 28% from last year (2023). In Q4 2024, 11 new tenders representing a total capacity of approximately 9.4 GW which reflects a decrease of 50% compared to previous quarter (Q3 2024).
- In 2024, a total capacity of 49 GW was allocated to various green energy developers in India.
- Among the total capacity awarded in the solar segment, SAEL and Renew, secured the highest capacities of 780 MW and 550 MW, respectively. Gentari Renewables, EG Green and Sunsure Energy were the new entrants in the wind solar hybrid segment in this quarter.
- In Q4 2024, the lowest-winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.15/kWh quoted by Waaree Energies under RUMSL’s 170 MW solar tender marking a decline of 13% in comparison to lowest tariff discovered in Q3 2024. The lowest-winning tariff in the wind-solar hybrid segment in Q4 2024 was INR 3.19/kWh quoted by Datta Infra under the SJVN 1200 MW ISTS Connected Wind Solar Hybrid tender which is 7% lower than the lowest wind-solar hybrid tariff discovered in the previous quarter (Q3 2024).
Investments
The investment flow in the RE sector in Q4 2024 was more than $4661 million, which is about 91.52% higher than the investments in Q3 2024. A total capacity of 5.32 GW was acquired in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Module Price Trends
In Q4 2024, the price of mono PERC 500 Wp modules was INR 17/Wp, marking a 13% increase from Q3 2024 and 38% decline year over year.
PV Manufacturing
In Q4 2024, India witnessed a noteworthy shift in its solar photovoltaic (PV) module exports, valued at INR 18,719 million (approximately US$ 222.41 million), reflecting a decline of 62%. In 2024, the leading seven players shipped 3.24 GW of solar PV modules.