Q4 2022 India RE update (Oct-Dec 2022)
Report Summary
Installation trends
- Cumulative: India’s renewable capacity installation reached 120.85 GW as of December 31, 2022. Solar continues to be the major contributor with 52% share in total renewable mix, which is followed by wind with 35% share. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind and hybrid projects are around 58 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 35 GW of projects are under bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
- Yearly: During calendar year (CY) 2022 period, about 11.3 GW of utility scale solar capacity was added, which is about 48% higher than last year installations in the same period. About 1.85 GW of new wind capacity was added in CY 2022, which is about 26% higher than 1.46 GW capacity added during CY 2021. In the rooftop solar segment, about 1,891 MW of new capacity was added during CY 2022, which is 29% less than CY 2021 installations.
- Quarterly: In Q4 2022 (October-December 2022), about 1.54 GW of utility scale solar capacity was added. This is about 45% less than the previous quarter installations. In wind segment, about 327 MW was added, which is 68% lower than the Q3 2022 installations. In rooftop solar, about 556 MW were added in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Projections
- Yearly: According to JMK Research, in 2023, about 16.8 GW of solar is expected to be added in India (~14 GW from utility-scale and 2.8 GW from rooftop solar). Whereas in wind segment, about 2.8 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in 2023.
- Quarterly: As per our estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 6.5 GW of solar, 2.3 GW of wind and 2.5 GW of hybrid capacities are expected to get installed in the country.
Quarterly market shares
- Inverters: In Q4 2022, Sungrow was the leading inverter supplier followed by Sineng and Deye.
- Modules: In Q4 2022, Waaree was the leading supplier contributing about 13% share of total shipments.
- Project Developers: In terms of cumulative installation as of December 31, 2022, across both utility-scale solar and wind segments, Adani is the leading player, with about 7.32 GW of operational capacity and another 20.43 GW of projects in pipeline.
Tenders
- In Q4 2022, 42 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 12.3 GW were issued across the renewable segment which is about 13.4% lower than the previous quarter.
- In Q4 2022, 9 new rooftop solar tenders were issued with a total capacity of 99.21 MW. In addition, MSEDCL issued 500 MW solar tender under Component-A of KUSUM scheme in Maharashtra.
- About 2493 MW of RE capacity was auctioned and allotted to various RE developers in the fourth quarter of 2022. Of the auctioned capacity, SJVN won the maximum solar capacity of 388 MW followed by Tata Power (200 MW), SolarArise (100 MW), NTPC (90 MW), and Hinduja Renewables (80 MW). In the wind segment, Scatec India won the maximum capacity of 300 MW followed by O2 Power (200 MW), and SJVN (100 MW). Greenko Energy (500 MW), Tata Power (255 MW) and Ayaana Renewables (150 MW) were awarded the highest capacities under hybrid/ storage tenders.
- In Q4 2022, the lowest-winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.90/kWh under MSEDCL’s 500 MW Tranche IX solar tender which is 16.46% higher than the lowest tariff discovered in Q3 2022. The lowest-winning tariff in the wind segment was also INR 2.9/kWh under the SECI’s 1200 MW Tranche XIII wind tender. For the wind-solar hybrid segment, the lowest-winning tariff in Q4 2022 was INR 3.00/kWh under TPDDL’s255 MW wind solar hybrid tender.
Investments
The investment flow in the RE sector in Q4 2022 was more than $2180 million. About 987 MW RE assets were acquired in this quarter with a total investment of more than $720.73 million. Another $703 million equity investment was also raised by various players. Apart from this, about $757 million debt was also raised in renewable energy segment in Q4 2022.
Module price trends
In the Indian market, the landed price for Chinese mono PERC module suppliers (excluding GST and BCD), was in the range between 27-31 US cents/Wp in Q4 2022.
Quarterly Import-Export Statistics
In Q4 2022, solar cells exports and modules imports decreased by 6.3% and 80.5% respectively, compared to the previous quarter’s figures. However, solar cell imports and solar modules exports increased by 73.4% and 144% respectively in Q4 2022.
GTAM Traded Volume
The IEX and PXIL together traded a total of 502 MU in GTAM in Q4 2022, which is 2.9% lower than the volume traded in the third quarter of 2022. The average trade price in IEX-GTAM for Q4 2022 was INR 5.08/kWh, while for PXIL it was INR 4.9/kWh. This is approximately 8.8% and 0.40% lesser than the respective previous quarter’s prices.