Q4 2020 India RE update (Oct-Dec 2020)
Report Summary
Installation trends
- Cumulative: As of December 31, 2020, the total renewable capacity installation of India reached 91.2 GW. Wind is the highest contributor at 43% of the total energy mix with 38.6 GW capacity followed by 42% share of solar with 37.5 GW capacity. The current pipeline of solar, wind, and hybrid projects stands at 50 GW which is likely to be commissioned in the next three years. Another 19 GW of projects are under bidding phase where tenders are issued but auctions are not completed.
- Yearly: From Jan-Dec 2020, about 2.6 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity was added, which is 65% lesser than the 2019 installations. On the rooftop solar side, despite lockdowns and COVID-19, about 1,172 MW of new capacity was added.
- Quarterly: In Q4 2020 (Oct-Dec 2020), 1016 MW of solar capacity was installed. This is about 86% higher than the previous quarter’s installations. In wind, about 500 MW were added, which is 70% higher than the Q3 2020 installations.
Projections
- Yearly: 2021 is likely to be the landmark year in terms of new solar capacity addition. About 9.7 GW of new solar capacity and 2.5 GW of new wind capacity is likely to get commissioned in 2021.
- Quarterly: In Q1 2021, installation activity is likely to further pick up with an estimate of 2.2 GW of new solar capacity and 0.7 GW of new wind capacity addition.
Quarterly market shares
- Inverters: In Q4 2020, Sungrow led the shipments in the central inverter category while Huawei led the string inverter category.
- Modules: In this quarter, Jinko is the leading supplier contributing 25% share of total shipments. Nearly 58% of the module shipments in India in Q4 2020 are high-efficiency mono PERC modules.
Tenders
- In Q4 2020, 48 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 8.77 GW were issued across the renewable segment.
- In the rooftop/small-scale solar segment, 28 new tenders of 382.2 MW were issued.
- Auction of 2.97 GW of tenders was completed. Maximum solar capacity was won by NTPC (760 MW), Adani (600 MW) Sembcorp (400 MW), and Axis Energy (380 MW)
- In Q4 2020, India has witnessed a historic low solar tariff of INR 1.99/kWh surpassing all the previous tariff rates.
Investments
The investment flow in the RE sector in Q4 2020 (USD 1270 million) was about 211% higher than the investments in the previous quarter i.e. Q3 2020 (USD 409 million).
Module price trends
In the Indian market, the landed price for Chinese module suppliers (excluding GST and safeguard duty), was about 17-18 cents/ Wp in Q4 2020. This is about an 8% YoY decline from Q4 2019. Prices for mono modules are about 21-22 US cents/ Wp in Q4 2020.
Import Exports trends
In Q4 2020, imports and exports of solar modules have declined by 17% and 59% respectively as compared to Q3 2020 trade figures.
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