Q3 2024 (Jul-Sep) India RE update
Summary
- Cumulative: India’s renewable energy capacity installation reached 201.46 GW as of September 30, 2024. Solar continues to be the major contributor to the renewables sector, with a 45% share in the total renewable mix, followed by wind and large hydro with a 23% share each. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind, wind-solar hybrid and storage projects is around 111.2 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 55.8 GW of projects are under the bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
- Yearly: From January to September 2024, India added about 13.2 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity, marking a significant increase of about 160.9% compared to the installations during January to September 2023. During first nine months of 2024, India added about 3.2 GW of new rooftop solar capacity, a 7.3% increase compared to the first nine months of 2023 installations. In the wind sector, about 2.6 GW of new capacity was added in the first nine months of 2024, up by 14.8% from the 2.3 GW added in the first nine months of 2023.
- Quarterly: In Q3 2024 (July-September 2024), about 3.6 GW of utility-scale solar capacity was added in India, representing a 71.4% increase compared to the previous quarter’s installations. In the wind segment, about 0.71 GW was added, representing a 7.8% decline from the installations in Q2 2024. Additionally, around 1.4 GW were installed in the rooftop solar during this quarter.
Projections
- Yearly: According to JMK Research, in CY2024, about 22.4 GW of new solar capacity is expected to be added in India (17 GW from utility-scale, 4 GW from rooftop solar and another 1.4 GW from off grid component). Whereas in the wind segment, it is projected that around 3.6 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in CY2024.
- Quarterly: In the next two quarters, about 7.6 GW of solar and 2.6 GW of wind capacities are expected to be installed in the country.
Quarterly market shares
- Inverters: In Q3 2024, Sungrow was the leading inverter supplier with a 30.6% share, followed by Sineng (15.3%) and Tbea (14.5%).
- Modules: In Q3 2024, Waaree was the leading module supplier, contributing around 19.9% share of total shipments in India.
- Project Developers: As of September 30, 2024, the top five players in terms of cumulative installations and pipeline capacity across renewables segment such as utility-scale solar, wind, and hybrid segments are Adani (33.2 GW), ReNew (18.4 GW), Greenko (14.1 GW), NTPC (12.7 GW), and Avaada (11.5 GW).
Tenders
- Regarding tender activity, in Q3 2024, 25 new RE tenders with a cumulative capacity of about 18.32 GW were issued under the project development category excluding rooftop/small scale solar, which is about 3.6% less capacity than the previous quarter (Q2 2024 i.e., 19 GW).
- In Q3 2024, 7430 MW of renewables capacity was auctioned. Out of this, 7356 MW was allocated to various RE developers. Among the total allotted capacity, JSW Energy and Avaada secured the highest capacities for Storage, with 730 MW and 470 MW, respectively. In the solar segment, Essar Renewables secured the largest solar capacity at 600 MW, followed by SAEL Industries with 550 MW. In the wind-solar hybrid category, JSW Energy won the highest capacity at 500 MW, followed by Avaada with 305 MW and O2 Power with 250 MW.
- In Q3 2024, the lowest-winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.48/kWh under SECI’s 500 MW ISTS-connected solar (Phase XVI) tender which is 7 % less than the lowest solar tariff discovered in the previous quarter (Q2 2024). The lowest-winning tariff in the wind-solar hybrid and RE with storage segment was INR 3.43/kWh and INR 3.42/kWh respectively in Q3 2024.
Investments
The investment flow in the renewables sector in Q3 2024 was $2360 million, which is about 13% higher than the investments in Q2 2024.
Module Price Trends
The domestic module prices of Mono PERC have seen a 10% decline on QoQ basis. Furthermore, there is a YoY reduction of around 30%.
PV Manufacturing
Adani, Waaree and Vikram Solar continued to be the leading solar module exporters for this year i.e. from January to September.
As of September 2024, a capacity of 56.5 GW capacity was enlisted under the ALMM with 81 active manufacturers. In Q3 CY2024 (July-Sep), eight new manufacturers have registered a capacity of 1.057 GW of capacity.