Q3 2023 (Jul-Sep) India RE update

Q3 2023 (Jul-Sep) India RE update

Report Summary

Installation trends

  • Cumulative: India’s renewable capacity installation reached 131.8 GW as of September 30, 2023. Solar continues to be the major contributor with 54% share in the total renewable mix, which is followed by wind with 34% share. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind, and hybrid projects is around 77 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 5-7 years. Another 55 GW of projects are under the bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions have not yet been completed.
  • Yearly: In the first nine months of 2023 (January to September 2023), about 8.5 GW of solar capacity was added in India. This includes 5.06 GW of utility scale solar, 3 GW of rooftop solar and another 0.4 GW of off-grid solar. This is about 25% fall from previous years’ installations in solar sector during same period. Utility scale solar installations in this period (5.06 GW) saw a significant decline of 84% compared to the installations during the same period in 2022, which totalled 9.3 GW. While in the rooftop solar segment, there was a substantial installation of 3 GW from January to September 2023, representing a growth of 2.3x compared to the 1.33 GW added during the same period in 2022. In the wind segment, from January to September 2023, 2.28 GW of new capacity was added, which is 123% higher than the 1.02 GW capacity added in the first nine months of 2022.
  • Quarterly: In Q3 2023 (July-September 2023), about 0.85 GW of utility-scale solar capacity was added. This is marginally lesser than the previous quarters’ installations. In the wind segment, about 0.41 GW was added, which is 64% less than the Q2 2023 installations. In rooftop solar, about 0.7 GW were added in Q3 2023, which is 53% less than the previous quarter’s installations.

Projections

  • Yearly: According to JMK Research, in CY2023, about 11 GW of new solar capacity is expected to be added in India (~7 GW from utility-scale, 3.5 GW from rooftop solar and another 500 MW from off grid component). Whereas in the wind segment, it is projected that around 3 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in CY2023.
  • Quarterly: As per JMK Research estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 4.8 GW of solar and 2.2 GW of wind capacity is likely to be added.

Quarterly market shares

  • Inverters: In Q3 2023, Sungrow was the leading inverter supplier followed by Sineng and FIMER.
  • Modules: In Q3 2023, Jinko was the leading supplier contributing about 23.5% share of total shipments.
  • Project Developers: In terms of cumulative installation as of September 30, 2023, across both utility-scale solar and wind segments, Adani is the leading player, with about 8.3 GW of operational capacity and another 20.4 GW of projects in pipeline.

Tenders

  • In Q3 2023, 92 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 28.14 GW were issued across the renewable segment which is about 0.8% higher than the previous quarter.
  • In Q3 2023, 42 new KUSUM tenders were issued, with a total capacity of 6648 MW under component C.
  • About 4165 MW RE capacity under the project development category was auctioned in the third quarter of 2023. Out of the total auctioned capacity, SAEL won the maximum solar capacity of 1000 MW, followed by Renew Power (600 MW), Eden (300 MW) and NLC India (300 MW). In the hybrid segment, Acme won the maximum capacity of 600 MW, followed by Tata Power Renewable Energy (150 MW) and Solarcraft India (100 MW).
  • In Q3 2023, the lowest-winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.60/kWh under SECI 2000 MW ISTS XI connected solar tender. The lowest-winning tariff in the wind solar hybrid segment was INR 3.27/kWh under Tata Power’s 225 MW Wind Solar Hybrid tender.

Investments

In Q3 2023, the investment inflow in the RE sector amounted to $2,394 million. Various players raised $1,170 million through equity and $740 million through debt in this period.

Module price trends

The domestic module prices have seen a 10-12% decline on QoQ basis.

Quarterly Import-Export Statistics

In Q3 2023, solar modules imports increased significantly by 73% compared to the previous quarter. The rise in the import figures is because the government has extended the implementation of ALMM order until March 2024.

Solar module exports have seen significant uptake in Q3 2023 as well. For top 3 players i.e. Waaree, Adani and Vikram, solar modules exports’ contribute about 60-70% share of their total production in Q3 2023.

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