Q2 2022 India RE update (Apr-Jun 2022)
Report Summary
Installation trends
- Cumulative: India’s renewable capacity installation reached 114.06 GW as of June 30, 2022. Solar continues to be the major contributor with 51% share in total renewable mix, which is followed by wind with 36% share. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind and hybrid projects are around 49 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 42 GW of projects are under bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
- Yearly: In H1 2022, about 8.3 GW of solar capacity was added in India. Compared to H1 2021 period, installation was about 71% higher. Rajasthan leads solar installation with 4.5 GW capacity added. About 0.7 GW of new wind capacity was added in the first half of 2022, which is about 41% less than the H1 2021 installation. Gujarat leads with 427 MW of capacity addition in the first half of 2022.
- Quarterly: In Q2 2022 (April-June 2022), about 3.71 GW of solar capacity was added. This is about 18% lesser than the previous quarter’s installation. In wind segment, about 430.45 MW was added, which is 57% higher than the Q1 2022 installation.
Projections
- Yearly: About 20 GW of solar is expected to be added in India (~16.5 GW from utility-scale and 3.5 GW from rooftop solar). Whereas, about 3 GW of wind capacity is expected to be added this year.
- Quarterly: As per our estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 7 GW of solar, 2.4 GW of wind and 2 GW of hybrid capacities are expected to get installed in the country.
Quarterly market shares
- Inverters: In Q2 2022, Sungrow continues to be the leading inverter supplier followed by Sineng and FIMER.
- Modules: In Q2 2022 Adani is the leading supplier contributing about 17% share of total shipments. The Chinese supplies have dipped drastically in Q2 2022 because of the imposition of basic custom duty (BCD) of 40% on solar modules from 1st April 2022, and the implementation of Approved List of Module Manufacturers (ALMM).
- Project Developers: In terms of cumulative installation as of June 30, 2022, across both utility-scale solar and wind segments, Adani is the leading player, with about 5.46 GW of operational capacity and another 20.04 GW of projects in pipeline.
Tenders
- In Q2 2022, 71 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 11.3 GW were issued across renewable segment, which is 66.8% higher than the previous quarter.
- 9 new KUSUM tenders were issued, with a total capacity of 2386 MW in Q2 2022.
- In Q2 2022, auction was completed for 5.86 GW of tenders’, out of which about 3.71 GW capacity was allocated to various RE developers. Aditya Birla won the maximum solar capacity of 300 MW, followed by SJVN (180 MW) and Hinduja Renewables (120 MW). In wind segment, EDF secured the maximum capacity of 300 MW, followed by JSW Neo Energy (300 MW) and Torrent Power (300 MW). Whereas, Tata Power (600 MW), NTPC Renewable Energy (450 MW) and Amp Energy India (120 MW) were awarded the highest Wind-Solar Hybrid capacities in the second quarter of 2022.
- In Q2 2022, India saw the lowest-winning solar tariff of INR 2.3/kWh under GUVNL’s 500 MW Phase XIV solar tender in Gujarat. The lowest-winning tariff in wind segment was INR 2.89/kWh under SECI’s 1200 MW Tranche XII wind tender. While the lowest-winning tariff in wind solar hybrid segment was INR 2.53/kWh under SECI’s 1200 MW Tranche V Wind solar hybrid tender in Q2 2022.
Investments
More than 5,778 MW RE assets were acquired in this quarter with total investment of more than $4,030 million. Another $6.7 million equity investments were also raised by various players.
Module price trends
In the Indian market, the FoB price for Chinese multi crystalline module suppliers (excluding GST and BCD), was about 23-26 cents/Wp in Q2 2022 while prices for mono PERC modules was in the range of 25-28 US cents/Wp. From April 1 2022, onwards 40% Basic Custom Duty is applicable on imported modules and 25% on imported cells.
GTAM Traded Volume
The IEX and PXIL together traded a total of 1,014.66 MU in GTAM in Q2 2022, which is 23% lower than the volume traded in the first quarter of 2022. The average trade price in IEX-GTAM for Q2 2022 was INR 8.10/kWh, while for PXIL it was INR 9.12/kWh. This is approximately 52% and 41% higher than the respective previous quarter’s prices.