Q1 2021 India RE update (Jan-Mar 2021)
Report Summary
Installation trends
- Cumulative: As of March 31, 2021, the total renewable capacity installation of India reached 94.4 GW. Wind and solar each have a 42% share in the total renewable mix. The current pipeline of solar, wind and hybrid projects stands at 60 GW which is likely to be commissioned in the next 3-4 years. Another 26 GW of projects are under bidding phase where tenders are issued but auctions are not completed.
- Yearly: In FY2021, about 3.5 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity was added, which is 39% lesser than the FY2020 installations. On the rooftop solar side, despite COVID-induced lockdown and restrictions, about 2 GW of new capacity was added.
- Quarterly: In Q1 2021 (Jan-Mar 2021), 2.2 GW of utility-scale solar capacity was installed. This is about 45% higher than the previous quarter installations. In wind, about 800 MW were added, which is 60% higher than the Q4 2020 installations.
Projections
- Yearly: About 10 GW of new solar capacity and 3.5 GW of new wind capacity is likely to get installed in 2022. This is about 25% less than our initial estimate which was made before the second wave of COVID-19 hit in India.
- Quarterly: In Q2 2021, installation activity is likely to further pick up with an estimate of 3 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity and 0.85 GW of new wind capacity addition.
Quarterly market shares
- Inverters: In Q1 2021, Sungrow led the inverter supplier category with more than 1.2 GW of shipments.
- Modules: In this quarter, Jinko is the leading supplier contributing 20% share of total shipments. Nearly 60% of the module shipments in India in Q1 2021 are high-efficiency mono PERC modules.
Tenders
- In Q1 2021, 47 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 10.28 GW were issued across the solar and wind segment.
- In the rooftop/small-scale solar segment, 21 new tenders of 826 MW were issued.
- Auction of 9.09 GW of tenders was completed. Maximum solar capacity was won by Adani (3150 MW) followed by Shirdi Sai Electricals (2200 MW), NTPC (750 MW), and Torrent Power (450 MW). Whereas, the maximum wind capacities went to JSW Future Energy (450 MW), Adani (300 MW), and Ayana Renewables (300 MW).
- In Q1 2021, India has managed to achieve the lowest winning solar tariff of INR 2.2/kWh for GUVNL 500 MW Solar Tranche XII tender.
Investments
The investment flow in the RE sector in Q1 2021 (USD 3311 million) was about 161% higher than the investments in the previous quarter i.e. Q4 2020 (USD 1270 million).
Module price trends
In the Indian market, the landed price for Chinese module suppliers (excluding GST and safeguard duty), was about 18-19 cents/ Wp in Q1 2021. This is about a 5% YoY decline from Q1 2020. Prices for mono PERC modules is about 23-24 US cents/ Wp in Q1 2021.
Import Exports trends
In Q1 2021, imports and exports of solar modules have seen a significant surge by 132% and 298% respectively as compared to Q4 2020 trade figures.