Q1 2025 (Jan-Mar) India RE Update
Summary
Q1 2025 (Jan-Mar) India RE update
- Cumulative: India’s renewable energy capacity installation reached 220.1 GW as of March 31, 2025. Solar continues to be the major contributor to the renewables sector, with a 48% share in the total renewable mix, followed by wind (23%) and large hydro with a 22% share. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind, wind-solar hybrid and storage projects is around 143.8 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 66.1 GW of projects are under the bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
- Yearly: In FY2025 (Apr 2024-Mar 2025), India added about 16.9 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity, which represents a 47% increase compared to the previous year’s installations. During FY2025, about 5.1 GW of new rooftop solar capacity was added in the country, representing a 72% increase compared to the previous year. In the wind sector, about 4.2 GW of new capacity was added in FY2025, up by 28% compared to the 3.25 GW capacity added during FY2024.
- Quarterly: In Q1 2025 (Jan-Mar 2025), about 5.93 GW of utility-scale solar capacity was added in India, representing a 12.2% increase compared to the previous quarter’s installations. In the wind segment, about 1.87 GW was added, representing a 134.3% increase from the installations in Q4 2024. Moreover, around 1.34 GW were installed in the rooftop segment during this quarter.
Projections
- Yearly: According to JMK Research, in FY2026, about ~30.2 GW of new solar capacity is expected to be added in India (21.1 GW from utility-scale, 7 GW from rooftop solar and another 2.05 GW from off-grid component). Whereas in the wind segment, it is projected that around 6 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in FY2026.
- Quarterly: In the next two quarters, about 11.9 GW of utility scale solar and 3.8 GW of wind capacities are expected to be installed in the country.
Quarterly market shares
- Inverters: In Q1 2025, Sungrow was the leading inverter supplier with a shipment capacity of about 9.8 GW in the domestic market, followed by Sineng (2.8 GW) and FIMER (1.9 GW).
- Modules: In Q1 2025, Waaree was the leading module supplier, contributing around 17.3% share of total shipments in India.
- Project Developers: As of March 31, 2025, the top five players in terms of cumulative installations and pipeline capacity across utility-scale solar, wind, and hybrid segments are Adani (36.2 GW), ReNew (22.3 GW), NTPC (16.2 GW), Greenko (15.14 GW) and Avaada (15.13 GW). The commissioned capacity of the top five players increased by 7.9% compared to the previous quarter (Q4 2024).
Tenders
- In Q1 2025, 4.8 GW of utility-scale renewable energy tenders were issued, representing a 49% decrease from Q4 2024 and an 88.2% decline compared to the same period last year.
- In Q1 2025, a capacity of ~7 GW was allotted to various RE developers, reflecting a decrease of 8.6% compared to Q4 2024.
- Among the total capacity awarded in the solar segment, NTPC and Adani secured the highest capacities of 1000 MW and 400 MW, respectively. In the Wind Segment, the top three developers, Datta Infra, Renew, and NLC were cumulatively allocated capacity of 482 MW. Adani, Jindal Renewables, and Illuminate Hybren (Mahindra Susten), were awarded a total of 850 MW capacity in the wind solar hybrid segment in Q1 2025. In the RE with storage segment, the top 5 developers were allotted a capacity of 1250 MW which accounted for 68% of the total allocation under the segment.
- In Q1 2025, the lowest-winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.56/kWh quoted by NTPC & ReNew under UPPCL’s 2000 MW Solar tender marking an increase of 19% in comparison to lowest tariff discovered in Q4 2024. In Q1 2025, the lowest winning tariff in the wind segment was INR 3.74/kWh, quoted by NLC for SJVN’s 600 MW ISTS-connected wind tender issued in April 2024. This marks a marginal 5% increase compared to the lowest wind tariff in Q4 2024. The lowest-winning tariff in the wind-solar hybrid segment in Q1 2025 was INR 3.38/kWh quoted by Jindal Renewables under the NTPC’s 1200 MW Wind Solar Hybrid (Green shoe capacity of 600 MW) tender which is 6% higher than the lowest wind-solar hybrid tariff discovered in the previous quarter (Q4 2024).
Investments
The investment flow in the RE sector in Q1 2025 was more than US$6232 million, which is about 34% higher than the investments in Q4 2024.
Module Price Trends
In Q1 2025, the price of mono-PERC 500 Wp modules stood at INR 15.39/Wp, marking a 0.70% decrease from Q4 2024 and a 22.14% year-over-year decline.
PV Manufacturing
In Q1 2025, 12.5 GW of modules were shipped by leading 24 players in the Indian market in which top 5 players contributed around ~51% share. Additionally, in Q1 2025, ~572 MW of modules were exported by 4 key players. Adani and Waaree exports in Q1 2025 exceeded twice the capacity exported in Q4 2024.
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