Q4 2023 (Oct-Dec) India RE update

Q4 2023 (Oct-Dec) India RE update

Report Summary

Installation trends

  • Cumulative: India’s renewable capacity installation reached 133.88 GW as of December 31, 2023. Solar continues to be the major contributor with a 55% share in the total renewable mix, which is followed by wind with a 33% share. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind, and hybrid projects is around 85.9 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 5-7 years. Another 67.6 GW of projects are under the bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
  • Yearly: From January to December 2023, about 6.5 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity was added in India. This is about 42.5% lesser installations than the January-December 2022 period. In the rooftop solar segment, there was a substantial installation of 3 GW in 2023, representing a significant growth of 58% compared to the year 2022. About 2.84 GW of new wind capacity was added in 2023, 53.5% higher than the 1.85 GW capacity added in 2022.
  • Quarterly: In Q4 2023 (October-December 2023), about 1.42 GW of utility-scale solar capacity was added. This is about 67% higher than the previous quarter’s installations. About 0.17 GW was added in the wind segment, 138% less than the Q3 2023 installations. In rooftop solar, there were no installations during this quarter.

Projections

  • Yearly: According to JMK Research, in CY2024, about 20.6 GW of new solar capacity is expected to be added in India (16 GW from utility-scale, 4 GW from rooftop solar and another 600 MW from off grid component). Whereas in the wind segment, it is projected that around 4.5 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in CY2024.
  • Quarterly: As per JMK Research estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 7.5 GW of solar and 1.85 GW of wind capacity is likely to be added.

Quarterly market shares

  • Inverters: In Q4 2023, Sungrow was the leading inverter supplier followed by FIMER and Sineng.
  • Modules: In Q4 2023, Jinko was the leading supplier contributing about 35% share of total shipments.
  • Project Developers: In terms of cumulative installation as of December 31, 2023, across utility-scale solar, wind and hybrid segments, Adani is the leading player, with about 8.5 GW of operational capacity and another 20.8 GW of projects in pipeline.

Tenders

  • In Q4 2023, 77 new tenders with a cumulative capacity of 34.1 GW were issued across renewable segments, which is about 21.2% higher than the previous quarter.
  • In Q4 2023, 20 new KUSUM tenders were issued, with a total solar capacity of 3,397 MW under component C of KUSUM scheme. Additionally, a KUSUM tender of 40 MW solar capacity was issued by UHBVN under component A.
  • In Q4 2023, about 9,660 MW RE capacity was auctioned, out of which around 8,838 MW RE capacity were allotted to various developers. Avaada won the maximum solar capacity of 1400 MW, followed by NTPC (900 MW), and NLC India (810 MW). In the Wind segment, Avaada and Juniper Green won 50 MW each. In the hybrid segment, Acme and Juniper Green won the maximum capacities of 550 MW and 430 MW respectively, followed by O2 Power (300 MW) and Sprng Energy (250 MW) during this quarter.
  • In Q4 2023, the lowest-winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.52/kWh under SECI 1000 MW ISTS connected Solar tender which is approximately 3.07% less than the tariff discovered in the previous quarter under SECI’s 2000 MW ISTS connected solar tender. The lowest-winning tariff in the wind solar hybrid segment was INR 3.35/kWh under the NTPC 1500 MW Wind Solar Hybrid tender which was around 2.44% higher than the lowest wind solar hybrid tariff discovered under Tata Power’s 225 MW Wind Solar Hybrid tender in the previous quarter (Q3 2023).

Investments

The investment flow in the RE sector in Q4 2023 was $1750 million. About $1450 million and $300 million of debt and equity were raised by various players in this quarter.

Module price trends

The domestic module prices have seen a 7-13% decline on QoQ basis. Furthermore, there is a YoY reduction of around 24-33%.

Quarterly Import-Export Statistics

Solar module imports increased by 138%, and solar module exports decreased by 38.5% in this quarter. The rise in the solar module import figure is because of the sharp reduction in solar module and cell prices globally.

In Q4 2023, the top 3 players i.e. Waaree, Vikram Solar and Adani have contributed solar module exports of about 50-80% out of their total production capacity.



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