Q4 2021 India RE update

Q4 2021 India RE update (Oct-Dec 2021)

Report Summary

Installation trends

  • Cumulative:  India’s renewable capacity installation reached 104.88 GW as of December 31, 2021. Solar continues to be the major contributor with 47% share in total renewable mix, followed by wind with 38% share. The current pipeline of solar, wind and hybrid projects are around 62 GW which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 31 GW of projects are under bidding phase i.e., where tenders are issued but auctions are not completed.
  • Yearly: In Calendar year (CY) 2021, about 7.62 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity was added in India. Compared to CY 2020 period, installations are about 2.5 times higher. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu were the leading states with maximum large-scale solar installations during this period.
  • Quarterly: In Q4 2021 (Oct-Dec 2021), about 2.38 GW of utility scale solar capacity was installed. This is about 7% higher than the previous quarter installations. In wind, about 212 MW were added, which is 45% lesser than the Q3 2021 installations. In rooftop solar, about 612 MW were added, which is nearly 6% higher than the previous quarter. As of December 2021, 1.46 GW capacity is installed in the distributed /off grid solar segment.

Projections

  • Yearly: Approximately 16 GW of new utility scale solar capacity and 3.8 GW of new wind capacity is expected to be installed in the country in 2022. 
  • Quarterly: The next quarter i.e., (Q1 2022) is expected to see a significant increase in installations, with around 4.2 GW of new utility-scale solar, 1.3 GW of new wind capacity, and 1.8 GW of hybrid capacity addition between Jan-Mar 2022.

Quarterly market shares

  • Inverters: In Q4 2021, Sineng was the leading supplier in the central inverter category and Huawei is the leader in the string inverter category. 
  • Modules: In this quarter, Jinko is the leading supplier contributing 34% share of total shipments. Nearly 83% of the module shipments in India in Q4 2021 are high-efficiency mono PERC modules.

Tenders

  • In terms of tender activity, in Q4 2021, 46 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 8.32 GW were issued across solar and wind segment.
  • Five new KUSUM tenders were issued, with a total capacity of 1209.99 MW, wherein 704 MW was issued under component A and 505.99 MW issued under component C of the KUSUM scheme in Q4 2021.
  • Auction was completed for 3.74 GW of tenders’, out of which about 2.40 GW capacity was allocated. Amongst the project development tenders auctions concluded in Q4 2021, ReNew Power won the maximum solar capacity of 600 MW followed by NTPC (500 MW) and Acme solar (375 MW).
  • In Q4 2021, India saw the lowest winning solar tariff of INR 2.17/kWh for SECI’s 1785 MW solar tender.

Investments

The investment flow in RE sector in Q4 2021 was more than $5,919 million. The largest acquisition in Renewable Energy sector in India was completed in Q4 2021 wherein Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) acquired 100% stake in SB Energy India for $3.5 billion.

Module price trends

In the Indian market, the price for Chinese module suppliers (excluding GST and safeguard duty), was about 22-23 cents/ Wp in Q4 2021 for multi-crystalline modules. This has increased by 2.7% on QoQ basis. Prices for mono PERC modules is about 25-28 US cents/ Wp in Q4 2021.

Import Exports trends

In Q4 2021, solar cells and modules exports increased by 47% and 6% respectively, compared to the previous quarter’s figures, while solar modules imports increased by 64% and solar cells imports decreased by nearly 2% in Q4 2021.

GTAM Traded Volume

During Q4 2021, the IEX green term-ahead market traded 862 MU volume, including 471.6 MU in the solar segment and 390.4 MU in the non-solar segment.

While, the PXIL Green Term-Ahead Market reported 375 MU volume in Q4 2021 with a significant increase of 318% on QoQ basis.

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