Q3 2022 India RE update

Q3 2022 India RE update (Jul-Sep 2022)

Report Summary

Installation trends

  • Cumulative: India’s renewable capacity installation reached 118.08 GW as of September 30, 2022. Solar continues to be the major contributor with 52% share in total renewable mix, which is followed by wind with 35% share. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind and hybrid projects are around 45 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 28 GW of projects are under bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
  • Yearly: During Jan-Sep 2022 period, about 9.3 GW of utility scale solar capacity was added, which is about 1.7 times higher than last year installations in the same period. About 1.89 GW of new wind capacity was added in the first nine months of 2022, which is about 46% higher than 1.3 GW capacity added during January to September 2021. Gujarat led the installations with the commissioning of more than 700 MW of new wind projects in this period. In the rooftop solar segment, about 1334 MW of new capacity was added during January to September 2022, which is 34% less than January to September 2021 installations.
  • Quarterly: In Q3 2022 (July-Sep 2022), about 2.82 GW of utility scale solar capacity was added. This is about 25% higher than the previous quarter installations. In wind segment, about 1.02 GW was added, which is 138% higher than the Q2 2022 installations because of the peak wind season in the country. In rooftop solar, more than 400 MW were added in this quarter.

Projections

  • Yearly: According to JMK Research, in 2022, about 13.6 GW of solar is expected to be added in India (~12 GW from utility-scale and 1.6 GW from rooftop solar). Whereas about 2.6 GW is likely to be added in 2022 in wind sector.
  • Quarterly: As per our estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 5.6 GW of solar, 2.5 GW of wind and 1.05 GW of hybrid capacities are expected to get installed in the country.

Quarterly market shares

  • Inverters: In Q3 2022, Sineng was the leading inverter supplier followed by Sungrow and FIMER.  
  • Modules: In Q3 2022, Waaree was the leading supplier contributing about 17% share of total shipments.
  • Project Developers: In terms of cumulative installation as of September 30, 2022, across both utility-scale solar and wind segments, Adani is the leading player, with about 6.72 GW of operational capacity and another 20.43 GW of projects in pipeline.

Tenders

  • In Q3 2022, 75 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 14.2 GW were issued across renewable segment which is about 25.7% higher than the previous quarter.
  • In Q3 2022, 7 new KUSUM tenders were issued, with a total capacity of 1,695 MW.
  • About 3150 MW of RE capacity was auctioned and allotted to various RE developers in the third quarter of 2022. Of the auctioned capacity, Tata Power won the maximum solar capacity of 450 MW followed by Avaada (325 MW) and Engie, NTPC and SJVN (200 MW each). In wind segment, Ayana Renewables won the maximum capacity of 140 MW. ReNew Power (300 MW), Tata Power (200 MW) and Sprng Energy (160 MW) were awarded the highest capacities under wind solar hybrid segment.
  • In Q3 2022, India saw the lowest-winning solar tariff of INR 2.49/kWh under GUVNL’s 750 MW solar (Phase XVI) tender in Gujarat. The lowest-winning tariff in wind segment was INR 2.84/kWh under GUVNL’s 500 MW Phase III wind tender. While the lowest-winning tariff in wind solar hybrid segment was INR 3.03/kWh under RUMSL’s 750 MW Wind Solar Hybrid tender.

Investments

The investment flow in RE sector in Q3 2022 was more than $6,627 million. About 8,737 MW RE assets were acquired in this quarter with total investment of more than $4600 million. Another $1358 million equity investments were also raised by various players.

Module price trends

In the Indian market, the landed price for Chinese multi crystalline module suppliers (excluding GST and BCD), was about 23-26 cents/Wp in Q3 2022 while prices for mono PERC modules was in the range between 25-27 US cents/Wp.

Quarterly Import-Export Statistics

In Q3 2022, solar cells and modules exports increased by 57% and 524% respectively, compared to the previous quarter’s figures. However, the solar cells imports increased by 64% and solar modules imports decreased by 64% in Q3 2022. The significant reduction in the import numbers is because of the imposition of 40% basic custom duty (BCD) on solar modules.

GTAM Traded Volume   

The IEX and PXIL together traded a total of 517.2 MU in GTAM in Q3 2022, which is 49% lower than the volume traded in the second quarter of 2022. The average trade price in IEX-GTAM for Q3 2022 was INR 5.57/kWh, while for PXIL it was INR 4.92/kWh. This is approximately 31% and 46% less than the respective previous quarter’s prices.

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JMK Research & Analytics is a specialist consultancy firm providing research and advisory services to Indian and International clients across solar, wind and e-mobility segments.

Based on our in-depth sector experience, strong industry network, we provide key insights and detailed industry information which helps clients develop successful business models and market strategies.

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