Q2 2023 (Apr-Jun) India RE update

Q2 2023 (Apr-Jun) India RE update

Report Summary

Installation trends

  • Cumulative: India’s renewable capacity installation reached 129.6 GW as of June 30, 2023. Solar continues to be the major contributor with 54% share in total renewable mix, which is followed by wind with 34% share. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind and hybrid projects is around 66 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 61.9 GW of projects are under bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
  • Yearly: In H1 2023 (January-June 2023), about 6.8 GW of new solar capacity was added in India, which is about 15% lower as compared to H1 2022 installations. Out of the total solar installed capacity, 4.2 GW were installed under utility scale solar, 2.3 GW under rooftop solar and 0.3 GW under off-grid solar/KUSUM scheme in H1 2023. About 1.9 GW of new wind capacity was added in the first half of 2023, which is 166% higher than 0.7 GW capacity added in H1 2022.
  • Quarterly: In Q2 2023 (April-June 2023) about 1.7 GW of utility scale solar capacity was added. This is about 28% higher than the Q1 2023 installations. In wind segment, about 1.1 GW was added, which is 54% higher than the previous quarter installations. In rooftop solar, about 1.5 GW were added in the second quarter of 2023, which is 86% higher than the Q1 2023 installations.

Projections

  • Yearly: According to JMK Research, in CY2023, about 13 GW of new solar capacity is expected to be added in India (~9 GW from utility-scale and 4 GW from rooftop solar). Whereas in the wind segment, it is projected that around 4.1 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in CY2023.
  • Quarterly: As per our estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 5.8 GW of solar and 2.3 GW of wind capacities are expected to get installed in the country.

Quarterly market shares

  • Inverters: In Q2 2023, Sineng was the leading inverter supplier followed by Sungrow and FIMER.
  • Modules: In Q2 2023, Waaree was the leading supplier contributing about 14.2% share of total shipments.
  • Project Developers: In terms of cumulative installation as of June 30, 2023, across both utility-scale solar and wind segments, Adani is the leading player, with about 8.3 GW of operational capacity and another 20.4 GW of projects in pipeline.

Tenders

  • In Q2 2023, 93 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 43.3 GW were issued across the renewable segment which is about 105.7% higher than the previous quarter. This is mainly because RUMSL had floated two pumped hydro storage tenders of significant capacities of 16.4 GW and 13.8 GW respectively in this quarter.
  • In Q2 2023, 25 new KUSUM tenders were issued in Rajasthan, with a total capacity of 1658 MW under component C. Also, MSEDCL issued 5 tenders with a cumulative capacity of 703 MW under agricultural feeder scheme in the respective quarter. In addition, 20 new rooftop solar tenders were issued with a total capacity of 137 MW.
  • About 8400 MW RE capacity under project development category was auctioned in the second quarter of 2023 and out of it about 7690 MW of RE capacity was allotted to various RE developers in the respective quarter. Out of the total auctioned capacity, Avaada won the maximum solar capacity of 1040 MW followed by ReNew (800 MW) and NTPC (750 MW). In the wind segment, SJVN and Apraava Energy won the maximum capacity of 300 MW each followed by Evergreen Power (220 MW). ReNew (600 MW), NTPC (500 MW) and Acme (380 MW) secured the highest capacities under hybrid/storage segment in the second quarter of 2023.
  • In Q2 2023, the lowest-winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.55/kWh under RECPDCL’s 1250 MW solar tender. The lowest-winning tariff in the wind segment was INR 3.11/kWh under the GUVNL’s 500 MW Wind (Phase V) tender. For the wind-solar hybrid segment, the lowest-winning tariff in Q2 2023 was INR 3.07/kWh under CESC’s 150 MW Wind Solar Hybrid tender.

Investments

The investment flow in the RE sector in Q2 2023 was more than $4374 million. About $2539 million equity and $1311 million bond investments were raised by various players in this quarter.

Module price trends

In the Indian market, the landed price for Chinese mono PERC modules (excluding GST and BCD) was in the range between 27-29 US cents/Wp in Q2 2023. Price for mono PERC modules is 9 to 13% less as compared to the previous quarter. The price for Bifacial modules was between 30-32 US cents/Wp in Q2 2023.

Quarterly Import-Export Statistics

In H1 2023, solar modules exports increased significantly by ~34X compared to the H1 2022 export figures. The rise in the export figures is because the USA has imposed restrictions on importing solar modules from China which resulted in the majority of solar modules exports from India.

GTAM Traded Volume   

The IEX traded a total of 221 MU in GTAM in Q2 2023, which is 21.6% lower than the volume traded in the first quarter of 2023. The average trade price in IEX-GTAM for Q2 2023 was INR 5.66/kWh, this is approximately 25% less than the respective previous quarter’s price.

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