Q1 2024 (Jan-Mar) India RE update

Q1 2024 (Jan-Mar) India RE update

Report Summary

Installation trends

  • Cumulative: India’s renewable capacity installation reached 190.57 GW as of March 31, 2024. Solar continues to be the major contributor with a 43% share in the total renewable mix, followed by wind and large hydro with a 24% share each. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind, wind-solar hybrid and storage projects is around 108 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 69.2 GW of projects are under the bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
  • Yearly: During the financial year (FY) 2024 period, about 11.5 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity was added in India. This is around 18% higher than last year’s installations in the same period. In FY 2024, there was a substantial installation of around 3 GW in the rooftop solar segment, representing 34% growth compared to the previous year. About 3.25 GW of new capacity was added in the wind segment, up by 42.9% as compared to the 2.23 GW capacity added during FY2023.
  • Quarterly: In Q1 2024 (January-March 2024), about 7.5 GW of utility-scale solar capacity was added in India. This is about five times the previous quarter’s installations. In the wind segment, about 1.15 GW was added, which is 7X higher than the Q4 2023 installations.

Projections

  • Yearly: According to JMK Research, in FY2025, about 21.2 GW of new solar capacity is expected to be added in India (16.5 GW from utility-scale, 4 GW from rooftop solar, and another 700 MW from off-grid component). Whereas in the wind segment, it is projected that around 4 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in FY2025.
  • Quarterly: As per JMK Research estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 7.3 GW of solar and 1.75 GW of wind capacity is likely to be added.

Quarterly market shares

  • Inverters: In Q1 2024, Sungrow was the leading inverter supplier with a 50.7% share, followed by FIMER (18.7%) and Sineng (12.6%).
  • Modules: In Q1 2024, Jinko was the leading module supplier, contributing around 19.5% share of total shipments in India, followed by Longi (12.1% share) and Trina (10.7% share).
  • Project Developers: In terms of cumulative installation as of March 31, 2024, across utility-scale solar, wind and hybrid segments, Adani is the leading player and the country’s first company, with about 10.4 GW of operational capacity. Another 21.95 GW of RE projects of the company are under pipeline stage.

Tenders

  • In Q1 2024, 82 new RE tenders with a cumulative capacity of 40.7 GW were issued, which is about 19.4% higher than the previous quarter.
  • In Q1 2024, Under component C of KUSUM scheme, 25 new project development tenders were issued, with a cumulative solar capacity of 4991 MW. MSEB Solar Agro Power Limited (MSAPL) alone issued the tenders with a total capacity of 4399 MW in Maharashtra.
  • About 25,525 MW of RE capacity was auctioned out of which around 20,013 MW capacity was allocated to various RE developers in Q1 2024. Out of the total allotted capacity, JSW Energy won the maximum RE capacity of 3080 MW followed by Avaada (2480 MW) and Renew (1930 MW).
  • In Q1 2024, the lowest winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.52/kWh under SECI’s 1500 MW ISTS Connected solar tender. In the wind segment, the lowest winning tariff was INR 3.42/kWh, discovered under the GUVNL’s 500 MW Wind (Phase VI) tender. The lowest winning tariff in the wind solar hybrid segment was INR 3.15/kWh under the SECI’s 2000 MW ISTS Connected wind solar hybrid tender, which is 6% less than the lowest tariff discovered in the previous quarter.

Investments

The investment flow in the RE sector in Q1 2024 was $1290 million which is about 26.3% lesser than the investments in Q4 2023.

Module price trends

The domestic module prices have seen a 6-7% decline on QoQ basis. Furthermore, there is a YoY reduction of around 27-36%.

Quarterly Import-Export Statistics

In the first quarter of 2024, solar module imports declined 2.4% and exports rose 103% compared to the previous quarter’s data. Furthermore, with the imposition of the ALMM order for solar PV modules effective from April 1, 2024, it is anticipated that module imports are likely to see a significant dip in Q2 2024.



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