Q1 2023 India RE update

Q1 2023 India RE update (Jan-Mar 2023)

Report Summary

Installation trends

  • Cumulative: India’s renewable capacity installation reached 125.16 GW as of March 31, 2023. Solar continues to be the major contributor with 53% share in total renewable mix, which is followed by wind with 34% share. The current pipeline of combined capacity of solar, wind and hybrid projects is around 59 GW, which is likely to be commissioned in the next 4-5 years. Another 46.7 GW of projects are under bidding phase i.e., where tenders have been issued but auctions are not yet completed.
  • Yearly: During financial year (FY) 2023 period, about 8 GW of utility scale solar capacity was added, which is about 22% lower than last year installations in the same period. About 2.28 GW of new wind capacity was added in FY 2023, which is about 105% higher than 1.1 GW capacity added during FY 2022. In the rooftop solar segment, about 2,232 MW of new capacity was added during April 2022 to March 2023, which is 1.2% higher than FY 2022 installations.
  • Quarterly: About 2.38 GW of utility scale solar capacity was added in Q1 2023 (January-March 2023). This is about 54% higher than the Q4 2022 installations. In wind segment, about 738 MW was added, which is 56% lower than the previous quarter installations. In rooftop solar, about 801 MW were added in the first quarter of 2023, which is 44% higher than the Q4 2022 installations.

Projections

  • Yearly: According to JMK Research, in FY2024, about 18 GW of new solar capacity is expected to be added in India (~15.5 GW from utility-scale and 2.5 GW from rooftop solar). Whereas in the wind segment, it is projected that around 3 GW of new capacity is likely to be added in FY2024. 
  • Quarterly: As per our estimates, the installation activity is likely to further pick up. In the next two quarters, about 6.7 GW of solar, 1.4 GW of wind and 2.5 GW of hybrid capacities are expected to get installed in the country.

Quarterly market shares

  • Inverters: In Q1 2023, Sungrow was the leading inverter supplier followed by Sineng and FIMER.  
  • Modules: In Q1 2023, Waaree was the leading supplier contributing about 12.8% share of total shipments.
  • Project Developers: In terms of cumulative installation as of March 31, 2023, across both utility-scale solar and wind segments, Adani is the leading player, with about 8 GW of operational capacity and another 20.4 GW of projects in pipeline.

Tenders

  • In Q1 2023, 68 new tenders aggregating to a total capacity of 21.05 GW were issued across the renewable segment which is about 72.6% higher than the previous quarter.
  • In Q1 2023, 13 new KUSUM tenders were issued, with a total capacity of 4980.48 MW, wherein a major share of 4006 MW was issued under component C and 975 MW issued under component A. In addition, 14 new rooftop solar tenders were issued with a total capacity of 394.14 MW.
  • About 1800 MW of RE capacity was auctioned and allotted to various RE developers in Q1 2023. Out of the total auctioned capacity, Sprng Energy won the maximum solar capacity of 200 MW followed by IB Vogt (130 MW) and Hinduja Renewables (120 MW). In the wind segment, ACME and EDF Renewables won the maximum capacity of 100 MW each followed by Juniper Green and Blupine Energy 50 MW each. Greenko Energy (700 MW) and JSW Energy (300 MW) were declared as the winners under PCKL’s 1000 MW pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) tender in Karnataka.
  • In Q1 2023, the lowest-winning tariff in the solar segment was INR 2.51/kWh under GUVNL’s 500 MW solar Phase XVIII tender. The lowest-winning tariff in the wind segment was INR 2.96/kWh under the GUVNL’s 300 MW Wind (Phase IV) which is 2.06% higher than lowest wind tariff discovered in previous quarter.

Investments

The investment flow in the RE sector in Q1 2023 was more than $3179.19 million. More than 2212 MW RE assets were acquired in this quarter with a total investment of more than $1254.92 million. Another $1647.81 million equity investment was also raised by various players in the first quarter of 2023.

Module price trends

In the Indian market, the landed price for Chinese multi-crystalline module suppliers (excluding GST and BCD), was about 26-29 cents/Wp in Q1 2023 while prices for mono PERC modules was in the range between 29-32 US cents/Wp.

Quarterly Import-Export Statistics

In Q1 2023, solar module exports & Imports have increased by 29.3% and 79.3% respectively, as compared to the previous quarter ‘s figures. Also, solar cell exports and imports have increased by 28.5% and 35.5% respectively in Q1 2023. The rise in imports figures is due to the suspension of ALMM until March 31, 2024.

GTAM Traded Volume   

The IEX traded a total of 282 MU in GTAM in Q1 2023, which is 10.19% lower than the volume traded in the fourth quarter of 2022. The average trade price in IEX-GTAM for Q1 2023 was INR 7.55/kWh, this is approximately 48.62% higher than the respective previous quarter’s price.

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